Is the data agree with the model?

• distance between data and model predictions
• likelihood function: likelihood of observing the data if we assume the model; the results will be a set of fitting parameters.

Why don’t we always use goodness-of-fit as a measure of the goodness of a model?

• overfitting
• not intuitive

This is why we would like to balance it with parsimony using some measures of generalizability.

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